Run scientifically rigorous geo lift studies that isolate causality — without long holdout windows, wasted spend, or the need to pause entire campaigns.
Platform attribution lies. It counts conversions that would have happened anyway. Adrsta's Synthetic Control Agent builds a mathematically rigorous counterfactual — what would have happened without your campaign — so you can measure true incremental impact with statistical confidence.
Capabilities
Design and run geo-randomized experiments with test and synthetic control markets. Measure incrementality at the DMA, city, or national level.
Our algorithm constructs weighted synthetic markets that match your test region pre-treatment — giving you a precise counterfactual, not a noisy holdout.
Every result comes with a confidence interval and p-value. Know not just the lift estimate, but how much you can trust it before reallocating budget.
Run concurrent experiments across multiple markets or channels. Compare results, identify regional variance, and build an always-growing evidence base.
How it works
Select test markets and let the algorithm identify the best synthetic control match. Set your exposure period, channel, and budget level.
Execute your campaign in test markets at normal spend levels. The synthetic control runs silently in the background — no holdout wasted budget.
Get a precise incrementality estimate with confidence intervals. Understand true lift, ROAS uplift, and what the data says about future investment.
Live Platform
Incremental Lift
+18.4%
↑ vs synthetic
Confidence
94%
Statistical sig.
iROAS
3.2×
True incrementality
Test vs. Synthetic Control
Results
18%
Average incremental lift measured
94%
Statistical confidence on average
3×
Reduction in misattributed conversions
40%
Less budget required vs. matched market tests
Client Results
Real results from teams who have used Synthetic Control Agent to make faster, more confident decisions.
How it worked — PepsiCo × GIPHY
42 PepsiCo retail locations ingested with 105 weeks of sales history
Treatment vs holdout markets identified via time-series clustering
Synthetic control algorithm predicted what sales would have been without the campaign
4.1% incremental lift confirmed across test markets at >60% confidence
Completed studies
PepsiCo × GIPHY
GIPHY used Adrsta's Synthetic Control to measure sales lift for PepsiCo's MUG Root Beer brand across 42 locations over 105 weeks. Adrsta's ASC algorithm showed how GIPHY's buy drove overall sales lift and how their Takeover product specifically drove fast sales results.
4.1%
Sales lift
average across test markets, confidence >60%
66%
Of placements drove lift
within 1–3 days of Takeover
Fortune 100 Telecom Provider × Proxim
Adrsta's Synthetic Control helped Fortune 100 Telecom Provider measure incremental video take rate and optimize customer re-engagement campaigns — without expensive holdouts or complicated setup.
+10%
Video take rate lift
across test markets
85%
Reduction in turnaround time
from campaign setup to results
Currently running
Mightier × Universal Ads
Health & Wellness — Children
Jope × Universal Ads
Pet Products
Restore Hyper Wellness × Universal Ads
Health & Wellness
Book a demo and see how Adrsta can transform your measurement and planning workflows in weeks, not quarters.
No commitment required.